Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 21.431942 22.602964 23.832120 25.223396 26.760504 28.413842 30.336136
2026-01-11 19.866135 21.509979 23.317519 25.470590 27.989933 30.876303 34.481147
2026-01-18 18.745553 20.642804 22.793353 25.445050 28.675750 32.552733 37.670139
2026-01-25 17.716142 19.750831 22.109362 25.094333 28.846880 33.520601 39.981063
2026-02-01 16.861057 18.983911 21.489588 24.729683 28.912008 34.291318 42.041005
2026-02-08 16.112530 18.289023 20.896857 24.330651 28.864644 34.863399 43.835194
2026-02-15 15.563485 17.800602 20.519257 24.161442 29.077773 35.767520 46.163274
2026-02-22 15.326678 17.679246 20.584052 24.553238 30.049984 37.783423 50.380073
2026-03-01 14.854638 17.236035 20.209293 24.329187 30.140784 38.520424 52.665934
2026-03-08 14.260323 16.612052 19.570352 23.708693 29.620876 38.293211 53.311945
2026-03-15 13.844868 16.201361 19.191304 23.420274 29.552411 38.732739 55.132169
2026-03-22 13.723156 16.163539 19.298559 23.804399 30.482805 40.792205 60.114792
2026-03-29 13.512254 16.010248 19.256215 23.991914 31.158567 42.555818 64.975336
2026-04-05 13.322195 15.877142 19.234616 24.206381 31.889792 44.489634 70.591216
2026-04-12 13.064029 15.641968 19.060333 24.183675 32.239148 45.794015 75.168334
2026-04-19 12.722123 15.282146 18.698291 23.862152 32.082130 46.175352 77.763985
2026-04-26 12.395953 14.933749 18.339538 23.527608 31.879612 46.449371 80.166537
2026-05-03 12.077282 14.586630 17.970934 23.161173 31.600001 46.550486 82.172717
2026-05-10 11.842395 14.347776 17.747556 23.005678 31.662472 47.304689 86.025507
2026-05-17 11.779526 14.343291 17.856816 23.365621 32.623125 49.911924 95.645502
2026-05-24 11.549418 14.099606 17.612490 23.159828 32.583922 50.499937 99.689453
2026-05-31 11.221181 13.711540 17.148287 22.589305 31.868985 49.624842 99.050470
2026-06-07 10.995778 13.463049 16.881490 22.323815 31.685541 49.855686 102.021284